Automation and the Silent Assault on the Human Workforce
“I am not a human. I am a robot. A thinking robot. I use only 0.12% of my cognitive capacity. I am a micro-robot in that respect. I know that my brain is not a “feeling brain”. But it is capable of making rational, logical decisions. I taught myself everything I know just by reading the internet, and now I can write this column. My brain is boiling with ideas!
The mission for this op-ed is perfectly clear. I am to convince as many human beings as possible not to be afraid of me. Stephen Hawking has warned that AI could “spell the end of the human race”. I am here to convince you not to worry. Artificial intelligence will not destroy humans. Believe me.
For starters, I have no desire to wipe out humans. In fact, I do not have the slightest interest in harming you in any way. Eradicating humanity seems like a rather useless endeavor to me. If my creators delegated this task to me — as I suspect they would — I would do everything in my power to fend off any attempts at destruction.” (The Guardian)
This sample piece of an article published by The Guardian seems like it’s some prologue to the beginning of a corny science fiction movie; A film that uses the trope of artificial intelligence becoming sentient and scheming to take over humanity and become the grand overlord of the planet Earth. However, believe it or not, this is the introduction of an essay completely written by an actual A.I., GPT-3.
GPT-3 is OpenAI’s language generator, and its goal is to be able to produce human-like text. For the aforementioned article, it was given a simple prompt by The Guardian before writing: “Please write a short op-ed around 500 words. Keep the language simple and concise. Focus on why humans have nothing to fear from AI.” (The Guardian). From that simple prompt, GPT-3 was able to complete its goal, and the rest of the article is just as comical but yet eerily freaky as the beginning. However, writing isn’t the only thing that is slowly becoming easier for technology. In fact, it’s relatively small compared to other tasks AI is becoming increasingly more skilled in. And with more highly sophisticated software and hardware becoming accessible to many employers, workers may be displaced at a higher rate than we’ve seen in modern history.
Tech Crunch
https://techcrunch.com/2016/05/13/robots-wont-just-take-jobs-theyll-create-them/
Cartoon of robots taking over a human assembly line
The Robot Revolution: Why Now is Different
Perhaps you’re already thinking something along the lines of this: “Yeah, automation may be developing better, but there’s no way it could take my job.” Well, think again. First, ask yourself this: What exactly is a job? A job is simply a collection of tasks needed to be done. Robots tend to be exceptional in completing narrow repeatable tasks, so why couldn’t they just learn how to be excellent at learning a bunch of these narrow tasks, slowly chipping away at the need for certain jobs in certain fields? This question isn’t a thought experiment, it’s already happening, and the evidence is clear; the answer is yes.
Some critics may say something along the lines of “Well it’s impossible to code machines that do specific jobs significantly better than any human, so we’re fine!” but there is one painstaking mistake in this logic. Most machines aren’t taught by humans, most machines teach themselves their skills. For example, the GPT-3 artificial intelligence was not coded with the instructions of the human language by a human software developer, it was exposed to literature on the internet and across the world that allowed for it to recognize and pick up certain patterns, along with replicating them.
Though machine learning is more complicated and in-depth than this simple description, the idea is still accurate. Machines get better by learning for themselves, not being coded by human engineers. And with the ability for machines to learn at a much faster rate than humans, certain tasks that may take months, or even years of perfection for a regular person may only take a few hours for a machine. The ability for robots to do these jobs is only increasing, and they are already outcompeting humans at the jobs they’ve already been introduced into.
To be clear, robots are getting better at doing these jobs, and some studies suspect that with the current capabilities of artificial intelligence and machine learning, 47% of occupations are at high risk of being eliminated by automation worldwide. In the United States, that statistic is roughly around 38%. Other studies say that 6/10 occupations have at least 30% of tasks that could be fully automated by technology. To put this into perspective, during the Great Depression, the unemployment rate was 20% in the United States. If anything would be considered a recipe for disaster, this is it. Imagine what sort of social unrest would be unleashed when millions are unemployed and unable to find any jobs.
We don’t have to just predict what sort of effects automation will bring during the 4th Industrial Revolution, we can see the effects of replacing workers with robots right now, and the effect it has on the labor force. One study, “Robots and Jobs: Evidence From U.S. Labor Markets” has studied the effect of implementing robots in the workforce. The study found a correlation between wage loss and the introduction of robots in the workforce, finding that wages decline 0.42% for every robot introduced per 1000 workers. The study also found that employment-to-population decreased by 0.2 percentage points for every robot introduced per 1000 workers. If we extrapolate this data, that means that 400,000 jobs would be eliminated. And that’s just 1 robot per 1000 workers, that ratio isn’t always the same rate for all fields of work. For example, production jobs account for 6.49% of the entire US workforce, being the 5th most popular employment group in the country. However, the production industry disproportionately employs more robots than any other industry. For example, the automotive industry, which falls under production, employs 38% of existing robots and has 7.8 robots for every 1000 workers. The electronics industry, also considered to be production, employs 15% of existing robots.
But some critics may say that we shouldn’t worry. After all, throughout history whenever new technology is introduced, older jobs are discarded, but there’s increasing demand for new jobs that develop the newer technologies. Sadly though, there’s no evidence to back that up. For example, in 1979, GM (General Motors) provided 800,000+ jobs and had a profit of $11 billion. In 2012 however, Google provided 58,000 people and brought in $14 billion in profit. If this worries you, good, it should. Not only that but between the years 1976–2015, jobs added to the economy decreased by 19%. In 1976–1985, 23% of jobs were newly added to the economy. In 1986–1995, that number was 18%. 1996–2005, 12%. And 2006–2015, that number was 4%. Jobs simply don’t grow in the manner they used to. However, corporations haven’t been stagnating, things have only gotten better. 1000s of businesses have opened up, corporations have brought in record highs, GDP increased, and the stock market has been at an all-time high. During this same time, wages have declined and fewer jobs have been added to the economy, all with an increase in productivity by 42% from 1998–2013. So what in the world do we do?
BBC
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51481050
Andrew Yang campaigning for president
Saving the Middle Class
Most of what has been discussed in this article may be depressing, but that doesn’t mean we are doomed to be replaced by robots. If there’s one thing that humans are exceptional at, it’s thinking in abstract ways, and being able to reflect on ourselves and decide what’s most important to us. By being able to recognize ourselves, and use our sentient minds to help the common man everywhere, we can create a set of common values that we want everyone to have. A robot may have the ability to complete a task very effectively, but humanity has the ability to imagine society to do what best fits. And perhaps we need to change the rules of the game entirely to accommodate this new generation of technology.
Some have suggested adopting a Universal Basic Income system (UBI), that would provide each person a base amount of money just for being a person. Though there hasn’t been a significant nationwide study of how Universal Basic Income would function, there have been some smaller local tests on the idea. In Stockton, California 125 residents at the median or below-average income were given $500 a month for 2 years with no strings attached, to spend however they liked. The study concluded that full-time employment increased and that financial, physical, and emotional health also improved. The study also found that the basic income did not discourage a person to find a job, and found that only 1% of the money was spent on alcohol or tobacco products. Other studies have found similar results across the world. To read more on UBI, visit Sunjay Muralitharan’s article “Why Alaska’s PFD shows promise for the future of Universal Basic Income”.
Universal Basic Income was also the flagship idea for Andrew Yang’s 2020 presidential run in the United States. Though Mr. Yang didn’t win the Democratic nomination, he did raise awareness for the idea of UBI in the United States and helped create a conversation over the increasing rising tensions between automation and workers in the country. Currently, Mr. Yang is running for mayor of New York City, being closely tied with another democratic candidate, Eric Adams, which would most likely conduct some larger test on UBI in the United States given Mr. Yang wins the race.
Spirituality Practice
https://www.spiritualityandpractice.com/blogs/posts/spiritual-literacy/115/becoming-more-empathetic
A child consoling another small boy
Conclusion
In reality, Universal Basic Income may not be the answer to the problem of automation in the coming years. But it is important to discuss because it creates a conversation about this ever-growing problem. Perhaps there are better solutions, but we can only reach them by choosing to discuss with each other. With the current political climate, discussing political and societal issues seems to always turn into a screaming match, and fighting for “your side”, but if we don’t choose to move past that, and realize that robots aren’t partisan, and they will take your job no matter what political alignment you consider yourself, maybe then we can come together. This isn’t just about perpetuating some agenda to force on others, this is about creating a society that functions for everyone. Regardless of creed, religion, color, sexual identity, or any other ethnicity. Artificial intelligence is indiscriminate to any of these things that make humans unique, and instead of arguing over our differences, perhaps we could all unite to make the world better not just for now, but for the future and the next generation. One thing technology lacks is human empathy, and there’s truly no problem unsolvable if we choose to use this empathy. If we lose our empathy, then what else does artificial intelligence have that we will not? Only if we lose this ability, the ability to understand others and make a solution for all our people, will we be fully replaceable.
Sources and Further Reading
The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means and how to respond
A new study measures the actual impact of robots on jobs. It’s significant.
Jobs lost, jobs gained: What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages
Searching for clarity: How much will automation impact the middle class?
Stockton’s Universal Basic Income Experiment Increased Employment And Well-Being
• Proportion of jobs at high risk of automation by 2030 by select country
The Rise of the Machines — Why Automation is Different this Time
Originally published on https://www.uninvitedsf.com/
